According to a think tank, China is likely to become the world’s biggest economy by 2028, surpassing the US. This is five years prior to the previously estimated analysis. As per the think tank, this is on account of the contradictory recoveries of the two nations from the COVID-19 pandemic. According to CEBR, China’s efficiency during the management of the pandemic, with its stern early lockdown, and hits to long-term growth in the West ensured China’s relative economic performance had enhanced. The economic fallout due to COVID-19 has harmed US more than China.
The average economic growth of China is likely to be 5.7% annually from 2021-25. However, it is likely to come down to 4.5% annually from 2026-30. The US is likely to witness a growth rate of 1.9% annually between 2022 and 2024 and after that the growth rate would be 1.6%. Till early 2030s, Japan would continue to be the world’s third-biggest economy in terms of dollar. After this, India is likely to replace Japan pushing Germany down from fourth to fifth. As per the CEBR’s measure, the United Kingdom is currently the fifth-biggest economy. However, from 2024, it would slip to sixth position.
According to CEBR, in 2020, Europe accounted for 19 per cent of output in the top 10 global economies. However, that would drop down to 12 per cent by 2035, if there is a discordant split between the EU and Britain. It further stated that the pandemic’s repercussions on the international economy was likely to be visible in the form of inflation rather than in the form of slower growth.